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INFORME EMPRESARIAL EXCELTUR 2009 y PERSPECTIVAS 2010.
Publicado por Tomas en 4th Marzo 2010
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TERMINAMOS ESTA PRIMERA PARTE DESPUES DE UNA VISIÓN GENERAL DEL ESTADO DEL MUNDO ( TRABAJOS DE LOS ALUMNOS ) CON EL INFORME DE LA VALORACIÓN EMPRESARIAL DEL 2009 Y PERSPECTIVAS 2010 VER ORIGINAL EN EXCELTUR.
INFORME Â EMPRESARIAL EXCELTUR 2009 y PERSPECTIVAS 2010.
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PIB TURÃSTICO
•Al  cierre de 2009 se constata que el turismo ha sufrido con mayor intensidad que la media de la economÃa española la caÃda de la actividad por los efectos de la crisis.
Según las estimaciones que realizamos trimestralmente en EXCELTUR, el PIB turÃstico en España habrÃa
descendido en 2009 un -5,6%, lo que supone una pérdida de 6.380 millones de euros respecto a
los niveles de 2008.
•Esta caÃda del PIB turÃstico del -5,6% en 2009, es casi 2 puntos superior a la del conjunto de la economÃa
española, situada en el -3,7%, según el Consenso de Analistas.
De confirmarse este dato, son ya 9 años consecutivos en los que el turismo se comporta peor que
el conjunto de la economÃa española.
VENTAS
Este descenso de la actividad se ha trasladado con mayor intensidad sobre las ventas de las empresas turÃsticas
españolas por la feroz guerra de precios que ha imperado en el sector a lo largo de todo el año 2009.
El 88,4% de las empresas turÃsticas españolas han visto descender sus volúmenes de ventas en
España durante 2009, con un 56,8% registrando bajadas de más del 10%, que también se vuelven a sumar a
las sufridas en 2008 por el 63,1% de las empresas del sector.
•Las agencias de viajes españolas, los hoteles urbanos y las
pequeñas compañÃas de alquiler de coches son los que más
han sufrido en este año 2009.
•RENFE, las grandes empresas de alquiler de coches, las
estaciones de esquà y los museos y monumentos han
aguantado mejor los avatares de la crisis en 2009.
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PRECIOS
2009 ha estado caracterizado por una guerra de precios en el sector para propiciar ventas, que ha
provocado que se acabe con una deflación más intensa que en el resto de la economÃa española.
El 91,0% de los empresarios turÃsticos manifiestan haber reducido sus precios medios en 2009, respecto a los niveles
de 2008, con un 44,9% con caÃdas de sus tarifas superiores al 10%.
Los propios datos de precios del INE reflejan la intensidad del
recorte en precios y su mayor profundidad en relación a la
media de otros bienes de consumo en España.
El Ãndice de Precios Hoteleros desciende en media un -
5,5% en 2009, los paquetes turÃsticos y el transporte aéreo un
-1,3% y un -1,2%, respectivamente en los meses centrales de
verano, mientras el IPC general sitúa la deflación media en
España en el -0,4%.
TENDENCIAS DE LA DEMANDA
El consumo turÃstico se ha contraÃdo de forma intensa en España durante 2009, afectando con
mayor fuerza a la demanda extranjera que a la española en sus viajes por los destinos españoles.
La respuesta a la crisis por parte del turista europeo, incluido el español, en 2009 se ha traducido
en una hipersensibilidad al precio y el recorte en los presupuestos de viaje manifestado en:
•La elección preferente de destinos de proximidad para reducir el gasto en transporte y el coste final
del viaje.
•El predominio de los desplazamientos en coche propio.
•La búsqueda de alojamientos más económicos, multiplicándose el uso de casas propias de
familiares y amigos y casas rurales a diferencia de los reglados de mayor precio.
•La sustancial reducción de los gastos en restauración, recuerdos y ocio en los destinos.
•La compra de último minuto en todo tipo de servicios turÃsticos para tratar de aprovecharse del mejor
precio.
•El recorte de las escapadas de fin de semana y la concentración del gasto turÃstico en los meses
de verano.
DEMANDA ESPAÑOLA
Los españoles han reducido drásticamente su gasto turÃstico en 2009. El efecto del aumento del paro ha
hecho que un menor porcentaje de personas hayan podido viajar en 2009 y que, las que lo han hecho, su número de
viajes y su gasto hayan sido muy inferiores a los de 2008. Los españoles han respondido a la crisis
primando viajes domésticos peninsulares, en
los meses de verano y alentados por ofertas
y descuentos, mientras han recortado de
manera drástica sus viajes exteriores y el
número de escapadas, afectando
especialmente a las agencias de viaje y las compañÃas aéreas.
DEMANDA EXTRANJERA
El turismo extranjero hacia España ha sufrido la mayor contracción en 2009, cercana al 10% en
todos los indicadores oficiales disponibles. Los ingresos reales por turismo extranjeros y sus pernoctaciones en alojamientos reglados se
sitúan al cierre de 2009 en valores mÃnimos de la década.
En términos de afluencia de turistas extranjeros los paÃses del mediterráneo oriental han
aguantado mejor los efectos de la crisis que los destinos españoles competidores en la misma
lÃnea de producto, a pesar del esfuerzo realizado por los empresarios reduciendo sus precios.
Mientras en las comunidades autónomas españolas del litoral mediterráneo, Baleares y Canarias la llegada de turistas
extranjeros ha descendido un -10,7% hasta noviembre, TurquÃa, como principal competidor, ha visto aumentado el
flujo de visitantes internacionales un 2,0% en 2009, Egipto ha sufrido una caÃda del -3,4%, Croacia apenas ha
reducido sus volúmenes de demanda extranjera (-0,6%) y Marruecos ha conseguido aumentar el número de llegadas
de extranjeros un 1,7%.
La caÃda del turismo extranjero en España ha estado explicado por la fuerte contracción de lo
que son los dos principales mercados para España: Alemania y Reino Unido. Entre ambos
paÃses, que han perdido a partes iguales más de 4,5 millones de pernoctaciones hoteleras,
explican el 68,0% del total del descenso que se ha producido en España en 2009.
A esta contracción se ha sumado el menor flujo turÃstico de los PaÃses del Este (-18,8%) que venÃa
creciendo en los últimos años de forma notable y de Italia (-15,3%), en ambos casos muy afectado
por el impacto de la crisis sobre sus economÃas
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RESULTADOS POR DESTINOS
Los empresarios de las comunidades autónomas del norte (La Rioja, Cantabria, Galicia, PaÃs
Vasco y Navarra) sufren algo menos los efectos de la crisis, por la respuesta de la demanda
española, especialmente durante los meses de verano.
La grandes ciudades (especialmente Valencia, Madrid y Barcelona) protagonizan las mayores
caÃdas en rentabilidad por el aumento de las plazas y la bajada del turismo de negocios, unido a
Zaragoza, muy afectada por la comparación con 2008 en el que se celebró la Expo.
Dentro de los destinos vinculados al sol y playa, los insulares y especialmente Canarias
experimentan las caÃdas más intensas en las ventas y los beneficios de los empresarios hoteleros,
mientras los peninsulares aguantan algo mejor gracias al mercado español
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PREVISIÓN 2010
2010 seguirá marcado por la complejidad, aunque esperamos una notable moderación de los
ritmos de caÃda de la demanda turÃstica en España, tanto de turismo vacacional como de negocios,
por la profundidad en la que ya se ha manifestado la crisis en 2009.
El tÃmido crecimiento del consumo de las familias esperado para nuestros principales mercados emisores europeos y la
continuidad de la respuesta del mercado español de proximidad prevista para 2010 nos hace esperar un desaceleración
en los ritmos de caÃda del PIB turÃstico en España en 2010. En concreto, prevemos que en 2010 el PIB
turÃstico descienda en España un -0,9%.Todo lo más, en el segundo semestre del año 2010 podrÃamos asistir a una estabilización de los
niveles de demanda turÃstica, con algún crecimiento a ritmos que hoy se estiman todavÃa débiles
Nuevamente la demanda española de interior deberÃa responder mejor que la extranjera en
2010.
No hay grandes cambios en los condicionantes del comportamiento de la demanda previstos para 2010 más allá
de la moderación en sus ritmos de caÃda, una vez que la extensión del paro entre los ciudadanos de los
principales mercados para España, esperada por los analistas, seguirá condicionando la debilidad del consumo y
propiciando una extremada sensibilidad al precio.
Su traducción en términos de pernoctaciones en hoteles por mercados para 2010 apunta una caÃda
del -1,1% para la demanda española, por un descenso del -2,4% de la extranjera. En términos
de ingresos reales que revierten a nuestro paÃs ( Balanza de Pagos ) , esperamos que en 2010
los derivados de la demanda extranjera vuelvan a caer en España un -4,9%, moderando la caÃda DEL -10,7 del año anterior.
Las empresas turÃsticas españolas afrontan el año 2010 con un ligero mayor optimismo respecto a
la evolución de sus beneficios en 2009, no tanto por una recuperación de la demanda sino por:
• Los resultados de las polÃticas de contención de costes y ganancia en eficiencia en las operaciones que llevan
aplicando desde 2008
• Los ajustes de capacidades introducidos en 2009.
• La reducción de la competencia por el proceso de reestructuración y desaparición de empresas que se están
produciendo en algunos subsectores, como el de agencias de viajes y compañÃas aéreas.
En el devenir de los resultados empresariales de 2010 serán claves:
1. La persistencia o no, de problemas de acceso al crédito, las dificultades para refinanciar préstamos y el
alargamiento en las condiciones de pago de los clientes corporativos, asociado a un aumento preocupante de la
morosidad dentro del propio sector que exigirá un atento seguimiento de los riesgos.
2. Los procesos de alianzas, fusiones y/o adquisiciones entre compañÃas de los diversos subsectores turÃsticos por los
problemas de solvencia o dificultadse de poder afrontar los nuevos retos de gestión en ciernes . Las empresas turÃsticas españolas afrontan el año 2010 con un ligero mayor optimismo respecto a
la evolución de sus beneficios en 2009, no tanto por una recuperación de la demanda sino por:
• Los resultados de las polÃticas de contención de costes y ganancia en eficiencia en las operaciones que llevan
aplicando desde 2008
• Los ajustes de capacidades introducidos en 2009.
• La reducción de la competencia por el proceso de reestructuración y desaparición de empresas que se están
produciendo en algunos subsectores, como el de agencias de viajes y compañÃas aéreas.
En el devenir de los resultados empresariales de 2010 serán claves:
1. La persistencia o no, de problemas de acceso al crédito, las dificultades para refinanciar préstamos y el
alargamiento en las condiciones de pago de los clientes corporativos, asociado a un aumento preocupante de la
morosidad dentro del propio sector que exigirá un atento seguimiento de los riesgos.
2. Los procesos de alianzas, fusiones y/o adquisiciones entre compañÃas de los diversos subsectores turÃsticos por los
problemas de solvencia o dificultad de poder afrontar los nuevos retos de gestión en ciernes .
Con estos condicionantes, un 59,4%
de los empresarios turÃsticos
españoles esperan que en 2010 se
produzca una mejorÃa de sus
resultados, en términos de mayores
beneficios o menores pérdidas que en 2009.
La mejorÃa de resultados para 2010, además de en el sector ferroviario, se concentra en las
compañÃas del sector del transporte aéreo y de las agencias de viajes y touroperadores, que es en
los que más se ha notado la reestructuración por la desaparición de empresas o puntos de ventas
y el redimensionamiento en el mercado
Las expectativas de recuperación de beneficios a lo largo de 2010 en el sector hotelero,
tanto urbano como en el vacacional son, sin embargo, aún muy limitadas, como sucede
también entre las empresas de alquiler de coches y de ocio.
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